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education/statistics/Probability.md
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@ -55,4 +55,18 @@ As the number of events increases, the absolute chance error will increase, but
Absolute refers to the number of events, whereas compared against the total number is expressed as a % (relative?). Absolute refers to the number of events, whereas compared against the total number is expressed as a % (relative?).
If you want statistics to show the results being farther away from the expected, measure with less events. Long runs are better if you want to show results being closer to the middle. If you want statistics to show the results being farther away from the expected, measure with less events. Long runs are better if you want to show results being closer to the middle.
## Box Models
Box models help us understand how large the chance error is likely to be.
To make a box model, answer the following questions:
- What is the quantity of interest?
- Are we interested in:
- the sum of the draws?
- the average of the draws?
- How many draws?
- How many tickets go in the box?
- What values go on the tickets?
The number of draws is the amount of events.