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education/statistics/Sampling.md
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@ -67,4 +67,12 @@ $$ \frac{SD_{box}}{\sqrt{num_{draws}}} $$
| $EV_{ave}$ | The expected value for the average of the population | | $EV_{ave}$ | The expected value for the average of the population |
| $SE_{ave}$ | The standard error | | $SE_{ave}$ | The standard error |
## Confidence Interval ## Confidence Interval
Remember that the *parameter* is the *number* that actually describes the population.
95% confidence means that 95% of the time the interval constructed will capture the parameter, and 95% of the time it will not. 95% confidence means that 95% of the time the interval constructed will capture the parameter, and 95% of the time it will not.
For any unknown average, the probability histogram of the sample averages will be shaped like the normal curve and centered at the true average with a standard deviation equal to $SE_{ave}$.
$$ sample_{ave} \pm 2 * se_{ave} $$
The above equation will give you an interval that you can be 95% confident that the true random will be within that point.
95% does *not* mean that 95% of the data is in the interval, it just means we are 95% confident that the actual point is going to lie within the range specified.